Documents ageing population 352 results

"The progressive diffusion of ICT explains the raise in the number of highly paid jobs but has difficulties in justifying that of low-paid jobs. Classifying occupations according to their median wage in 1993, we analyze their employment growth until 2010, which is highest both in the top and in the bottom of the distribution, and lowest in the middle. Low-paid personnel services arise as the main factor responsible for the increase in the proportion of employment at the bottom of the wage distribution. We argue that population aging can explain the increased demand for personal services and thus the rise of employment in low-paid positions. Our argument goes as follows: goods and personal services are complementary for seniors. The decrease in the relative price of goods, induced by the progressive replacement of labor input in routine tasks by machines, is then associated with an increased demand for personal services if the proportion of seniors is increasing. We thus complement the existing literature on employment polarization by showing that demographic trends also play first order role."

"In the face of rapid population ageing, the long-run fall in effective retirement ages in most OECD countries needs to be reversed. There are some positive signs that this is beginning to happen, but early exit from the labour force, i.e. well before official old-age pension ages, still remains a very common phenomenon in OECD countries. In this paper we first compare recent trends in the labour situation of older workers across OECD countries. This is followed by a discussion of supply-side and demand-side factors that have been driving these trends. In particular, new evidence is presented on incentives to retire that are embedded in pension systems. We conclude that recent reforms in most countries in this area are working in the direction of encouraging later retirement, although in a few countries there are still substantial incentives to stop working early. We then examine to what extent there are barriers on the demand side which may also be discouraging work at an older age such as age discrimination, seniority rules in wage setting, low training participation and employment protection rules. We conclude that countries have also begun to tackle these barriers as well. Nevertheless, while considerable pension reform has undoubtedly strengthened incentives to continue working at an older age, further action is still required on the demand side to ensure that those older workers who wish to work longer can do so."

"This paper considers the issue of actuarial fairness of the new Italian public pension system in view of the recent trends in old-age mortality and the survival differences by gender, birth cohort and region of residence. After reviewing the secular trends in elderly mortality in Italy, and the evolution of regional differences in survival over the last three decades, we evaluate the impact, on the conversion factors introduced by the Dini reform, of a further decline in elderly mortality over the next few decades. We compute the conversion factors using a close approximation to the unknown formula employed in the Dini reform but allowing for gender- and region-specific survival probabilities. Our results leave no doubt about the importance of frequently updating the conversion factors in the light of the rapid increase in elderly survival. The paper also quantifies to what extent gender- and region-specific conversion factors may differ from their currently legislated values, that only vary by age. Finally, we recognize that the actuarial fairness of the system introduced by the recent reform can only be guaranteed on average and that, in the presence of a heterogeneous population of individuals that differ considerably in their mortality prospects, the current system implies a substantial degree of redistribution from high-mortality groups (typically characterized by low income and low wealth) to low-mortality groups (typically characterized by high income and high wealth)."

"This paper analyses effects of population aging on the labor market and determines their broad implications for public policy. It takes Germany as an example, but it equally applies to the other large economies in Continental Europe. The paper argues that, alongside the amply discussed, demographically-determined increase in the contribution and tax burden which is responsible for the ever widening gap between gross and disposable earnings, two other important areas of policy deserve greater attention. First, it is unlikely that the decline in the relative size of the economically active population will be offset by higher capital intensity. Labor productivity will need to increase over and above this mechanism in order to compensate for the impact of population aging on domestic production. Hence, we will need more education and training to speed up human capital formation. Second, the shift in the age structure will also change the structure of demand for goods. This, in turn, will have large effects on the pattern of employment across different sectors of the economy and will require a substantial increase in labor mobility in order to accommodate these structural changes."