Documents war 121 results

"Der Ukraine-Krieg belastet durch das Emporschnellen der Energiepreise und den Produktionsstopp in wichtigen ukrainischen Zulieferbetrieben unmittelbar die wirtschaftliche Aktivität in Deutschland. Daher werden zwei Szenarien prognostiziert, die die kriegs- und sanktionsbedingten Unsicherheiten durch unterschiedliche Verläufe der Rohöl- und Gaspreise sowie der Risikoprämien von Investitionen abbilden. Im Basisszenario beträgt der Anstieg des BIP 2022 im Jahresdurchschnitt 2,1 % und im Risikoszenario sinkt es in diesem Jahr um durchschnittlich 0,3 %. Im Risikoszenario ist die Erholung mit 4,3 % im Jahresverlauf 2023 kräftig, kommt aber in der Jahresdurchschnittsrate von 1,4 % infolge eines hohen statistischen Unterhangs aus 2022 kaum zum Ausdruck. Im Basisszenario beträgt der Zuwachs durchschnittlich 3,2 %. Die Arbeitslosenquote steigt im Risikoszenario im Jahresverlauf 2022 aufgrund der schwachen wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung an und geht dann 2023 im Verlauf wieder deutlich zurück. Im Jahresdurchschnitt 2022 beträgt die Arbeitslosenquote im Basisszenario 4,9 % und 5,3 % im Risikoszenario. 2023 ist die Arbeitslosenquote im Risikoszenario (5,3 %) um 0,7 Prozentpunkte höher als im Basisszenario (4,6 %). In beiden Szenarien steigt die Inflation 2022 stark an: im Basisszenario um 6,2% und im Risikoszenario 8,2 %. Im nächsten Jahr flacht sie dann auf 2,2 % bzw. 2,4 % ab."

"The global economy is facing mounting challenges amidst the largest energy market shock since the 1970s and the cost-of-living crisis for many households from rising inflation pressures. The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 2 highlights the unusually imbalanced and fragile outlook, the significant downside risks associated with energy market developments and rising financial vulnerabilities as interest rates are raised, and the associated policy challenges. Well-designed and timely policy actions are required to maintain economic stability, enhance energy security and strengthen the prospects for future growth.
This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country. Coverage is provided for all OECD members as well as for selected partner economies."

"At the beginning of 2022, hopes were high that the Covid-19 pandemic was on the ebb and that the European Union (EU) would be able to focus again on the main challenge of this century: how to proactively tackle the green and digital transition in a socially fair and inclusive way. But the Russian invasion of Ukraine dashed these hopes. Realpolitik was back on the agenda, with the EU having to figure out how to deal with its Eastern neighbour. Overnight, EU dependence on Russian fossil fuels became a major headache. With energy and food prices soaring, double-digit inflation reared its ugly head throughout the world, resulting in a cost-of-living crisis which has pushed millions of people into poverty as well as stoking popular discontent and mobilising trade unions, with the prospect of further civil unrest, protests and strikes. Obviously, all this had a major influence on EU policymaking: while the Russian military aggression in early 2022 prompted the EU to respond with unprecedented steps forward in European integration, it also highlighted the weaknesses in the EU governance system. A health crisis, an economic and financial crisis and a climate crisis are unfolding in parallel, while full-scale war is back in Europe. The question is now whether ‘normal times' will ever return or whether we will find ourselves living in a state of ‘permacrisis'.

Despite this stormy background, the EU social ship reached deeper waters. With the wind of the European Pillar of Social Rights in its sails, important progress has been made inter alia on minimum wages, occupational health and safety, the working conditions of people working through platforms, and gender equality. Furthermore, many new social initiatives have seen the light of day under the umbrella of the Recovery and Resilience Facility, promoting, at least to some extent, social investment, performance-based financing and (be it in a patchy way) a ‘just' green transition. Last but not least, the pandemic and the war in Ukraine have furthered European integration through highlighting the need to stand together in the face of a common foe. A European health space is now in the making, and new forms of economic governance – including the scope for an EU Social Imbalances Procedure – are being discussed, while the debate about a minimum income initiative is ongoing. Finally, this year's Bilan social raises the question whether the EUs ‘open strategic autonomy' paradigm could provide a window of opportunity to sustain the EU's social ambitions in the longer run."

"After the ending of the 1992-1995 war in Bosnia i Herzegovina (BiH), the country has remained the most unstable society in the Balkans. The Dayton Agreement was a compromise for stopping the shooting. But it provided neither political justice nor a manageable basis for a modern state. There is still a large distance and mistrust between the three ethnic groups. Obstruction in the joint political institutions describes the behaviour of the politicians better than co-operation. This concerns the relationships between both entities, the Republika Srpska (RS) and the Bosniak-Croat Federation (FBiH) and also the conditions in the 10 Cantons within the FBiH. Nationalist parties are still dominant. This does not mean that there has been no progress at all in the relationships between people and between any kind of NGO such as, for example, trade unions. On this level, some important steps have been made. Several elections have shown a tendency for a slowly-decreasing support amongst the electors for nationalist parties. The NATO air strikes have destroyed this progress."

"Climate policy making today demands balancing the need for immediate, accelerated climate action with essential responses to punctual crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine. Meeting this challenge requires a new approach centred on systemic resilience and the need to develop future-proof climate and economic policies that will endure potential diverse disruptions. This report offers policy makers a cohesive set of recommendations on how to build such resilience, derived from climate-relevant work from across OECD policy domains including economic and tax policy, financial and fiscal affairs, development, science and technology, employment and social affairs, and environmental policy, among others. It provides fresh insights on how to ensure the transition to net-zero emissions is itself resilient, while simultaneously building resilience to the increasing impacts of climate change. This report provides a synthesis of the OECD Net Zero+ project, covering the first phase of an ongoing, cross-cutting initiative, representing a major step forward for an OECD whole-of-government approach to climate policy."

"The multiple crises that the world is facing have diverse and unequal impacts on society at large. Uncertainty reigns as these crises continuously evolve in many different directions. The fast-paced change that we are experiencing challenges societal structures and triggers social unrest. Foresight and scenarios can be useful tools to improve our response to these crises from a long-term perspective. This report starts by explaining how foresight and future scenarios can help to anticipate how to best respond to crises, feed evidence-based policy-making and foster innovation. They can also help organisations of all types and sizes to take coherent and robust action. The report argues that strategic foresight needs to be implemented as a new layer of organisational change. The report then describes the ETUI future scenarios developed in 2020: (1) High-Tech Hives; (2)(Dis)-connected Ghettos; (3) Green Castles; and (4) Eco-Villages, explaining the foresight methodology used to develop them. In order to bring the scenarios up to date, the text maps some of the key events that took place in 2021 and 2022, focusing on the four global crises: climate and energy; rising inflation; war and changing geopolitical order; and social inequalities. To encourage people to use the ETUI scenarios, the report provides guiding questions to help the reader to recognise whether a given scenario is starting to materialise. It identifies key issues that need to be monitored in the coming years. Finally, the text highlights the fact that strategic foresight does not end with the development of future scenarios, and that a foresight process also requires action plans, including roadmaps and contingency plans. It concludes by inviting readers to use the scenarios in their own work environment."