Documents balance of payments 56 results

"The baseline projection for global growth in 2016 is a modest 3.2 percent, broadly in line with last year, and a 0.2 percentage point downward revision relative to the January 2016 World Economic Outlook Update. The recovery is projected to strengthen in 2017 and beyond, driven primarily by emerging market and developing economies, as conditions in stressed economies start gradually to normalize. But uncertainty has increased, and risks of weaker growth scenarios are becoming more tangible. The fragile conjuncture increases the urgency of a broad-based policy response to raise growth and manage vulnerabilities."

"Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade, according to Chapter 1 of this World Economic Outlook. World growth is expected to rise from 3.1 percent in 2016 to 3.5 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018. Stronger activity, expectations of more robust global demand, reduced deflationary pressures, and optimistic financial markets are all upside developments. But structural impediments to a stronger recovery and a balance of risks that remains tilted to the downside, especially over the medium term, remain important challenges. Chapter 2 examines how changes in external conditions may affect the pace of income convergence between advanced and emerging market and developing economies. Chapter 3 looks at the trend in the declining share of income that goes to labor and the root causes. Overall, this report stresses the need for credible strategies in advanced economies and emerging market and developing ones to tackle a number of common challenges in an integrated global economy."

"Ce numéro dresse le bilan de l'activité économique en France au cours de l'année écoulée et présnte les perspectives pour le premier semestre 2016En 2014, la croissance du produit intérieur brut (PIB) a été très faible (+ 0,2 %). Dans ce contexte, le taux de chômage a atteint 10,1 % pour la Francemétropolitaine. Le redressement des finances publiques s'est poursuivi, mais à un rythme plus lent que l'année précédente. La dette publique a continué d'augmenter pour atteindre 95,6 % du PIB."

"The April 2012 edition of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future."

"The September 2011 edition of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which is now in a dangerous new phase. Global activity has weakened and become more uneven, confidence has fallen sharply recently, and downside risks are growing. Against a backdrop of unresolved structural fragilities, a barrage of shocks hit the international economy this year, including the devastating Japanese earthquake and tsunami, unrest in some oil-producing countries, and the major financial turbulence in the euro area. Two of the forces now shaping the global economy are high and rising commodity prices and the need for many economies to address large budget deficits. Chapter 3 examines the inflationary effects of commodity price movements and the appropriate monetary policy response. Chapter 4 explores the implications of efforts by advanced economies to restore fiscal sustainability and by emerging and developing economies to tighten fiscal policy to rebuild fiscal policy room and in some cases to restrain overheating pressures."

"The paper provides an account of the meaning and implications of TARGET2 in the eurozone (EZ) balance of payments crisis. In this context, it discusses Hans-Werner Sinn's thesis about a stealth bail-out of the EZ periphery by the ECB from a heterodox perspective. Financial liberalisation, a relatively loose monetary policy and the provisional fading of devaluation risks generated ephemeral growth in some peripheral EZ countries sustained by capital flows from core countries. This has been followed by real exchange rate revaluation and deterioration of foreign accounts. As a result, external financing flows dried up and the previous stock of loans began to be repatriated. TARGET2 has played a fundamental role in avoiding a precipitous crisis. This distinguishes the European crisis from more traditional balance of payments crises. However, the presence of TARGET2 does not offset the absence of the financial crisis prevention and resolution mechanisms that are characteristic of fully fledged political and currency unions."

"The paper reviews recent economic developments in the countries neighbouring the EU
The period since the global financial crisis has been characterised by divergent economic experiences within the EU neighbourhood. Most of the Eastern neighbours, having been hit hard by the crisis, have since embarked on a recovery that has gradually solidified over the past 18 months or so. Macroeconomic, financial and balance-of-payments vulnerabilities have been reduced, often supported by external assistance from institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the EU. Meanwhile, the recent experience in the Mediterranean neighbourhood has been overshadowed by the region's recent political upheaval in the context of the Arab Spring. Alongside the obvious political challenges, the popular unrest has also brought many economic policy issues to the fore. The paper describes the recent economic developments in the EU's neighbours both at a regional level and in a country-by-country analysis. It also includes two thematic chapters – the first one discusses the main economic factors underlying the ongoing social and political unrest in parts of the Southern Mediterranean, while the second one examines trends in exchange rate policy and competitiveness in the two neighbourhood regions, identifying some patterns and policy issues."