Documents Teitge, Jonas 2 results

"The European Green Deal aims at climate neutrality of Europe by 2050, implying a significant acceleration of emission reductions. To gain the necessary support, at the same time it needs to reduce regional and social inequalities in Europe. We propose objectives in terms of jobs, growth, and price stability to complement the emission reduction targets and present a proof-of-concept investment profile for reaching these. Substantial additional public investments, of about 1.8% of last year's GDP annually, are proposed for the next decade. Their allocation includes retrofitting the European building stock, consciously fostering a renewal of the European innovation system, and complementary measures such as education and health. The scenario thus outlined is meant as an input to the urgently needed discussion about how the European Green Deal can shift the EU economy to a new development path that realizes a carbon neutral Europe by 2050 while strengthening European cohesion much earlier.
This paper presents a new and substantially updated version of the previous GCF Working Paper no 1/2020."

"Long after the debates about tertiarisation and post-industrial society, deindustrialisation is a hot topic again. An important example is the future of the German car industry. Some people believe that the forces of climate policy and digitalisation will lead to a smooth shift from selling internal combustion cars to battery electric ones. We show that things are much more difficult by distinguishing three different futures. First, a pink scenario of global industrial expansion based on electric cars and renewable electricity (1), then, a black scenario of a shrinking market for German cars and a global car fleet far from reaching climate neutrality by 2050 (2), finally a green scenario where carbon neutral self-driving robotaxis and shuttles on demand help realise the goals of the Paris accord and where the German car industry embraces digitalisation to sell mobility as a service, bridging the divide between private and public transport (3). Moreover, the pattern of incremental innovations the German innovation system is locked in is a problem. Germany needs to renew the creative capacity it had when the invention of the automobile planted the seed of the German car industry. This will require patient research able to analyse and foster an unprecedented economic transition. We explain and propose the multisectoral approach to economic dynamics developed at the interface of mathematics and economics by John von Neumann because it offers an adequate starting point for this indispensable effort."