Documents European Network for Economic and Fiscal Policy Research, Munich 8 results

"This paper presents scenarios of the shutdown costs related to Covid-19 in terms of lost value added for Austria, France, Italy, Germany, Spain, Switzerland and UK: the shutdown phase will lead to considerable production losses and large declines in GDP this year and, lasting longer than a month, the losses within the EU quickly reach dimensions well beyond the growth slump of previous recessions or natural disasters. Shutdown costs justify almost every conceivable investment in health policy measures which allow to combine a resumption of production with further fight against the epidemic."

"This paper from Dorine Boumans, Sebastian Link and Stefan Sauer (EconPol Europe, ifo Institute) presents the results of a survey of 1000 economic experts in 110 countries on the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the effectiveness of different policy measures to combat the crisis for different countries. The results indicate that economies all around the globe are severely hit by the COVID-19 crisis. The experts perceive the reductions in investment to have the strongest impact on their domestic economies. In consequence, the experts expect a severe recession in almost all countries in 2020, followed by a long period of economic recovery. The experts rate emergency liquidity assistance to firms as well as temporary tax deferrals for businesses as the most effective policy measures, but do not regard other responses such as helicopter money or lenient bank supervision as being well suited to combat the crisis. "

"Assuming that there is no other solution than herd immunity in front of the current pandemic, on which categories of citizens should we build this herd immunity? Given the fact that young people face a mortality rate which is at least a thousand times smaller than people aged 70 years and more, there is a simple rational to build it on these younger generations. The transfer of some mortality risk to younger people raises dfficult ethical issues. However, none of the familiar moral or operational guidelines (equality of rights, VSL, QALY, ...) that have been used in the Western world over the last century weights the value of young lives 1000 times or more than the lives of the elders. This suggests that Society could offer Covid protection to the elders by conning them as long as this herd immunity has not been attained by the younger generations. This would be a potent demonstration of intergenerational solidarity towards the most vulnerable people in our community. The welfare gain of this age-specic deconfinement strategy is huge, as it can reduce the global death toll by more than 80%. "

"The European debt crisis has brought about permanent changes in the Eurozone (EZ). The no-bailout rule was - de facto - removed, new institutions such as the ESM and the banking union were designed and partially implemented, new monitoring and surveillance schemes, such as the macroeconomic imbalance procedure, were introduced. In this way, the functioning of the EZ has been irreversibly transformed. Now, as a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic, a new—even more devastating—crisis has hit the EU. In response to this crisis, it is taking place a substantive - if not also formal - infringement of well-established principles such as those preventing the ECB from monetizing government deficits and the EU from acting as a transfer union with a common debt. The latter development was made possible by German Chancellor Angela Merkel's abandonment of her reiterated opposition to substantial intercountry transfers and any form of debt mutualization. This turnaround was motivated by the exceptional circumstances due to the pandemic and was presented by the German Chancellor as a one-off policy change. The risk that Italy's fragile financial, economic and political situation, exacerbated by the current crisis, could destabilize the entire EZ in the absence of sizeable external assistance was probably one of the main determinants of the German government's policy shift. We argue that, although this shift is sufficient to prevent Italy from plunging into a major financial and political crisis in the short term, thus buying time, it is far from sure that it will be sufficient to drive Italy into a sustainable and satisfactory growth path, so as to avoid that in the longer term it will be in need of further financial support from EU institutions and member states. Hence, the latter may again face the dilemma of whether to provide financial assistance to the EZ most vulnerable countries, thus making permanent what was supposed to be temporary, or exposing the EZ to a possible implosion."

"As the economy and our daily life return to a “new-normal” in the midst of Covid-19, the possibility of a second wave leaves lots of uncertainty about future developments. To understand indications about the impact of the pandemic on economic performance in different countries across the world, we conducted a survey among 950 economic experts in 110 countries. This report gives an overview of the most important results of the survey and compares them in different world regions and countries. An extra focus is placed on the European Union's strategy to combat the crisis and how experts from member states assess the different policy measures."

"A crucial part of the recently adopted “Fit for 55” package of the European Commission is devoted to the transition to a greener energy system. More specifically, the amendment to the Renewable Energy Directive sets up an increased target to produce 40% of energy from renewable sources by 2030. Hence, encouraging private investments in renewable generation capacity is becoming even more imperative to reach the ambitious climate-neutrality goals of the EU and to make the European Green Deal a reality. In this context, a pertinent design and endorsement of community renewable energy (CRE) projects may play a crucial role. A recent study based on a survey administered across 31 European nations, shows that there is high interest across Europe in CRE investment models, with 79% of respondents choosing to invest in at least one of the eight investment scenarios shown to them. Yet, operational details matter: e.g. administration through a local community organization is preferred to being administrated by an utility company. On top of that, highlighting local economic benefits, such as job creation from CRE projects, improves participation more so than highlighting general environmental benefits."

"The paper attempts to recover empirical evidence related to the European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF) to promote growth for the management of the Recovery & Resilience Facility (RRF). We analyse the impact of the EU Cohesion Policy on regional development over the period 1986-2018, using dynamic panel data models. In doing so, we use a neoclassical Solow growth model, extending the current literature in at least three ways. First, we make use of a new dataset, which contains highly detailed data on regional commitments and payments of Structural Funds; secondly, we address the endogeneity via a difference GMM estimator; finally, we control for the spatial interdependence among regions via a Spatial Durbin model. We find that the Cohesion Policy fosters regional growth both in the short and long run, regardless of the Objective considered. The role of the business cycle in the speed of regional convergence is quantified. The funds' effectiveness is hindered during the crisis, especially in the least developed regions, partly due to lower absorptive rates. Furthermore, human capital and quality of government are crucial growth determinants necessary for improving the performance of the Structural Funds. Finally, we discuss if the combination of ESIF & RRF funds will be appropriate for accelerating the post-pandemic recovery versus the financial recession recovery."

"In this paper we investigate the path to the green transition in Europe. In so doing, we implement an empirical model of dynamic panel data on a sample of sixteen Western European countries over the period 1980 to 2019. The model is consistent with various features of neoclassical growth theory incorporating energy use. Our focus is on the short-run determinants of carbon emissions within that set of countries. We provide evidence that the relationship between economic activity and CO2 emissions is strong in economies where economic booms depend on energy intensive sectors. Also, the mitigating role of renewable energy technologies is key when energy intensity rebounds. These circumstances may constitute a challenge for the climate transition goals targeted in the EU's Recovery Plan, whose main objective at this very moment is to mitigate the economic and social impact of the coronavirus pandemic."