Documents Manfredi, Thomas 4 results

"This paper derives school-to-work transition pathways in the United States and Europe between the late 1990s and the early 2000s. To do so, it uses Optimal Matching, a technique developed to sequence DNA. The key advantage of using this technique is that, rather than focusing on a specific point in time or a single destination, such as employment, inactivity or unemployment, they convey information on all activities undertaken by youth over the transition period, their sequence and their persistence. Strong similarities are found between the United States and Europe. However, pathways in the United States are characterised by significantly more dynamism than in Europe: youth in employment tend to change jobs more frequently while inactive or unemployed youth are more likely to experience several short spells rather than a single long one. School-to-work transition pathways in the United States also involve less time spent in unemployment than in Europe. The share of school-leavers involved in pathways dominated by employment is larger in the United States than in Europe and non-employment traps are less frequent in the United States. The most successful European countries in terms of school-to-work transitions are those where apprenticeships are widespread. On the other hand, European countries with a high incidence of temporary work among youth have a significantly smaller share of youth belonging to pathways dominated by employment and a larger share of youth in pathways characterised by frequent job changes separated by long unemployment spells. At the individual level, qualifications, gender, ethnicity and motherhood are found to influence the probability of disconnecting from the labour market and education for a prolonged period of time. Overall, the analysis shows the potential of Optimal Matching as a descriptive tool for the study of school-to-work transitions. It also tentatively explores how pathways obtained through Optimal Matching could be used for further analysis to draw policy-relevant conclusions. At present, data availability appears to be the main barrier to fully exploiting this novel technique.



Cet article analyse les trajectoires de transition de l'école à l'emploi aux États-Unis et en Europe entre la fin des années 90 et le début des années 2000. Pour ce faire, il utilise l'Optimal Matching, une technique développée pour l'analyse des séquences d'ADN. Le principal atout de cette technique est qu'au lieu de se concentrer sur un moment spécifique ou sur une seule activité, telle que l'emploi, l'inactivité ou le chômage, elles véhiculent de l'information sur toute les activités entreprises par les jeunes pendant la période de transition, leur chronologie et leur persévérance. On constate de nombreuses similarités entre les États-Unis et l'Europe. Toutefois, les trajectoires aux États-Unis sont caractérisées par beaucoup plus de dynamisme qu'en Europe : les jeunes occupés ont tendance à changer d'emploi plus fréquemment et les épisodes de chômage sont plus souvent cours et répétés que de longue durée. Les trajectoires de transition de l'école à l'emploi aux États-Unis sont aussi caractérisées par moins de temps passé au chômage qu'en Europe. La proportion de jeunes quittant l'école qui entame des trajectoires dominées par l'emploi est plus importante aux États-Unis qu'en Europe et les pièges du non-emploi sont moins fréquents aux États-Unis. Les pays Européens les plus performants en termes de transitions de l'école à l'emploi, sont ceux où l'apprentissage est le plus répandu. D'autre part, les pays Européens à forte incidence de l'emploi temporaire parmi les jeunes, présentent une part plus faible de jeunes dans les trajectoires dominées par l'emploi et une part plus importante de jeunes dans les trajectoires marquées par plusieurs changements d'emploi séparés par de longs épisodes de chômage. Au niveau individuel, le niveau de qualification, le sexe, l'origine ethnique et la maternité influencent la probabilité de se déconnecter du marché du travail et du système éducatif pour une période prolongée. Globalement, l'analyse montre le potentiel de l'Optimal Matching comme outil descriptif dans l'étude des transitions de l'école à l'emploi. Cet article tente également d?utiliser les trajectoires obtenues avec l?application de l'Optimal Matching pour en tirer des conclusions politiques. La disponibilité de données est actuellement la principale barrière à l'exploitation à part entière de cette nouvelle technique."

"Labour markets across the OECD have polarised in recent decades, as the share of middle skill occupations has declined relative to that of both high- and low skill occupations. This paper shows that, contrary to what is often assumed in the public debate, job polarisation has not resulted in a decline in the share of households with middle-income across 18 OECD countries. Most of the changes in the share of middle-income households result instead from changes in the propensity of workers in different occupations to be in it. In fact the results point to a change in the relationship between occupational skill levels and household income as both middle and high skill jobs increasingly fail to deliver on the promise of the relative income status traditionally associated with their skill level. These changes might help explain some of the social frustration that has been at the centre of the political debate in recent years."

"A growing body of literature studies the effect of providing information about inequality to respondents of surveys on their preferences for redistribution. We provide a meta-analysis combining the results from 84 information treatments coming from 36 studies in Economics, Political Science, Psychology and Sociology. This meta-analysis complements and informs a broader project on perceptions of inequality and preferences for redistribution ( Does Inequality Matter? How People Perceive Economic Disparities and Social Mobility , OECD publishing, Paris, 2021). In the meta-analysis, we focus on in-survey experiments where a randomly selected group of respondents receive either information about the overall extent of inequalities, or about their position in the income distribution. The results show that providing information on inequality has a sizeable impact on people's perceptions and concerns about inequality, but a rather small effect on their demand for redistribution. Inspecting the heterogeneity across treatments and outcomes helps explaining the small average effect on demand for redistribution, but the evidence is not yet conclusive about the potential explanations. We further show that correcting respondents' misperceptions about their own position in the income distribution increases the preferences for redistribution for those who previously overestimated their position and decreases it for those who underestimated, although the effects are, on average, small."