Documents Chojnicki, Xavier 2 results

"We present a quantitative analysis of the impact of differential ageing and pension reforms on capital and labour market and, in particular, on intra-European capital flows. To this end, we develop a stylized general equilibrium model with overlapping generations of heterogeneous agents for the three largest European countries: France, Germany and the United-Kingdom. The model presents a structure halfway between pure general equilibrium models with rigorous microeconomic foundations accounting models where the macroeconomic environment remains exogenous. We show that the dynamics of capital accumulation and pension system sustainability are totally different depending on the assumption concerning economic openness. Two main conclusions may be drawn from the examination of the various prospective scenarios. First of all, the critical assumptions for PAYG systems are the future trend of the global factor productivity and the behavior of agents concerning activity and labour market participation. Secondly, in the long run, resorting to debt financing seems to be a dead end to finance retirement systems."

"In this paper, we assess the demographic and economic consequences of migrations in Europe and neighborhood countries. In order to do so, we rely on a multi-region world overlapping generations model (INGENUE2). The rich modeling framework of this multi-regions model allows us to put into connection migration with the "triangular" relationship between population aging, pension reforms and international capital markets. With this model, we are also able to quantify the demographic and economic consequences of migration flows on both the regions receiving and losing migrants. Our analysis is based on a very detailed migration scenario between Western Europe and the Neighborhood regions constructed by taking into account both the current situation and some prospective empirical scenarios. Our quantitative results shed some light on the long term consequences of migration on regions that are not at the same stage in the ageing process. Concerning the regions receiving migrants, despite some improvement of their public pension system, it appears that a realistic migration scenario does not offset the effect of ageing in these regions, leaving room for pension reforms. Concerning the regions losing migrants, the adverse economic consequences of emigration appear to be all the more important than the region is advanced in the ageing process (and is already suffering from a declining population)."