Documents CPB 17 results

"This paper evaluates the effects of the raising of the minimum school leaving age (ROSLA) from 14 to 15 in the Netherlands in 1971. The policy goal was to increase the number of high school graduates. The analysis shows that the change led to a decrease in the high school dropout rate of approximately 20%. However, there were no benefits in terms of employment or higher wages. I investigate several explanations for this finding and present suggestive evidence in support of the skill-based explanation that no more labor-market relevant skills were learned during this extra year of school compared to those skills previously learned out of school."

"The standard human capital model predicts that, as a result of human capital obsolescence, mobility becomes more costly when workers become older. We measure and interpret how changing job opportunities across 96 occupations affect different age and skill groups.

Older workers end up in shrinking occupations, in occupations with a lower share of high-skilled workers, in occupations facing a higher threat of offshoring tasks abroad, more focus on routine-intensive tasks and less rewarding job content. This process is not only observed for the oldest group of workers, but for workers aged 40 and above. Observing older workers in declining occupations is to a large extent a market outcome, but declining job opportunities in terms of less satisfying working conditions and job tasks and content could potentially raise incentives to retire early."

"First, we find that the task-content of occupations (i.e. the intensive margin) has experienced significant changes in the United Kingdom between 1997 and 2006. Second, our econometric results suggest that these intensive margin changes can be explained by technological improvements (SBTC) and unionisation levels, while offshoring has not been a factor explaining how tasks are organized within occupations. Analysing changes at the extensive margin we confirm previous findings in the literature: there has been job polarization for both the UK and the Netherlands, and this job polarization can be explained by both SBTC and offshoring, though SBTC seems to be a more influential factor."

"The proposed Services Directive by the European Commission could increase intra European trade in commercial services by 30 to 60 percent. This paper analyses the welfare effects of the trade growth using an applied general equilibrium model WorldScan. It shows that GDP could be raised by 0.3 to 0.7 percent and consumption by 0.5 to 1.2 percent in the European Union as a whole. These results could only be realised if the Services Directive is implemented including the country of origin principle. If this principle is excluded from the directive, trade increases only by 20 to 40 percent. The trade-induced welfare effects are correspondingly lower. GDP could rise by 0.2 to 0.4 percent and consumption by 0.3 to 0.7 percent in the EU as a whole. The country-specific effects vary: most of the new Member States will experience larger gains than the average Member State because their services trade is now still hampered by relatively large regulatory barriers in these countries."

"In light of the ageing of the Dutch society, policy measures aim at increasing the participation rate of elderly workers, particularly in the age-group between 55 and 64. This paper develops a stylized numerical simulation model describing consumption, savings and labour supply behaviour over the life cycle to analyze the labour-market implications of such proposals. For example, we simulate a shift in the (normal) retirement age from 65 to 67, the elimination of the Social Security premium exemption after age 65, and a premium on first-tier pension benefits if the commencement date of these benefits is postponed. Each of these reforms affect the economic outcomes via wealth effects, income effects and inter- and intratemporal substitution effects. The stylized model offers a profound theoretical underpinning which helps us to understand these policy effects over the entire life cycle of individuals. However, the numerical outcomes should be taken with some caution as the model ignores insights of behavioural economics (such as ‘framing effects')."

"In labour markets with collective wage bargaining higher progressivity of the labour income tax creates a trade-off. On the one hand, wages are lowered and unemployment decreases, on the other hand, the individual labour supply decision is distorted at the hours-of-work margin. The optimal level of tax progressivity within this trade-off is determined using a numerical general equilibrium model with imperfect competition on the goods market, collective wage bargaining and a labour-supply module calibrated to empirically plausible elasticity values. The model is calibrated to macroeconomic and institutional parameters of both the OECD average and a number of individual OECD countries. In most cases the optimal degree of tax progressivity is below the actual level. A decomposition approach shows that the optimal level is increased by high unemployment and by the general tax level."

"In light of the ageing of the Dutch society, policy measures aim at increasing the participation rate of elderly workers, particularly in the age-group between 55 and 64. This paper develops a stylized numerical simulation model describing consumption, savings and labour supply behaviour over the life cycle to analyze the labour-market implications of such proposals. For example, we simulate a shift in the (normal) retirement age from 65 to 67, the elimination of the Social Security premium exemption after age 65, and a premium on first-tier pension benefits if the commencement date of these benefits is postponed. Each of these reforms affect the economic outcomes via wealth effects, income effects and inter- and intratemporal substitution effects. The stylized model offers a profound theoretical underpinning which helps us to understand these policy effects over the entire life cycle of individuals. However, the numerical outcomes should be taken with some caution as the model ignores insights of behavioural economics (such as ‘framing effects')."

"This study argues that Dutch policy regarding the labour market for elderly is at a crossroads. Previous reforms in the Netherlands have encouraged labour supply and are expected to boost labour-market participation of individuals aged 55 to 64 to 60% in 2020. Further stimulus of supply is debatable due to perverse distributive implications. The increase in participation reveals inefficiencies in the demand side of the market. Indeed, the Dutch labour market for elderly is characterised by long unemployment duration, long job tenures, low mobility and little investment in human capital. The inefficiencies were previously hidden by massive early retirement, but will become more pressing as the workforce ages and participation rates increase. This imposes a new challenge for Dutch policy, a challenge that has become more urgent due to the current financial crisis that is expected to cause a substantial rise in unemployment. The study offers up-to-date insight in the consequences of policy reforms for the labour market."