Documents CEPR 18 results

"This paper examines the impact of population growth on global climate change. The author employs the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to estimate the effects of population growth on the global average temperature by 2100. Observing that a larger population supports a larger economy, which translates in close proportion into additional releases of carbon dioxide (CO2), the paper notes that global temperature should in any year be nearly linear in relation to the rate of growth when the rate of population growth is constant.

The paper finds that an additional 1 percentage point of population growth through the end of the century would coincide with about an additional 2 degrees Fahrenheit in average global temperatures. Over time, the temperature change is greater and becomes increasingly sensitive to population growth."

"With Spain's official unemployment rate at 26 percent, and the economy projected to contract by 1.3 percent this year, it is difficult to make the case for continued austerity that could push a barely growing economy back into recession. Yet the government is committed to further fiscal tightening, on the grounds that it has no choice.
This paper will show that there are various feasible alternatives that can restore full employment to Spain by 2018, as well as other possibilities that could accomplish this goal even sooner."

"While most people intuitively know that low unemployment is important to job seekers, they may not realize that high levels of employment actually would make an enormous difference in the lives of large segments of the workforce who already have jobs. Particularly in an era of historically high wage and income inequality, many in the workforce depend on full employment labor markets, and the bargaining power it provides, to secure a fair share of the economy's growth. For the bottom third or even half of the wage distribution, high levels of employment are a necessary condition for improving wages, higher incomes, and better working conditions. "

"It is widely believed that volunteering will improve workers' job prospects. The logic is that volunteering offers opportunities to expand work-related experience, develop new skills, and build a network of professional contacts. For young people with little history of paid employment it can also signal that a person would be a reliable and motivated employee. In spite of these widespread views about volunteering, surprisingly little research has been done on the effect of volunteering on employment and pay in the United States. This analysis examines volunteering as a pathway to employment during a period of high unemployment, when it is reasonable to expect the beneficial effects of volunteering to be especially pronounced."

"The IMF makes policy recommendations to European countries through its Article IV consultations and resulting papers. This paper examines IMF policy recommendations to see whether they have contributed to the ongoing crisis in Europe, and also how they might affect other European Union goals such as those of Europe 2020, which seeks to reduce social exclusion, promote public investment in research and development, and promote employment and education.
The paper examines the policy advice given by the IMF to European Union countries in 67 Article IV agreements for the four years 2008-2011 (IMF 2012c).
Content analysis finds a consistent pattern of policy recommendations, which indicates (1) a macroeconomic policy that focuses on reducing spending and shrinking the size of government, in many cases regardless of whether this is appropriate or necessary, or may even exacerbate an economic downturn; and (2) a focus on other policy issues that would tend to reduce social protections for broad sectors of the population (including public pensions, health care, and employment protections), reduce labor's share of national income, and possibly increase poverty, social exclusion, and economic and social inequality as a result.
Europe remains mired in its second recession in three years, and the International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) most recent (October 2012) World Economic Outlook (WEO) sees its problems as perhaps the most important drag on world economic growth.
The IMF is also part of the so-called “troika” – with the European Commission (EC) and European Central Bank (ECB) that has been deciding or strongly influencing economic policy in the eurozone, as well as affecting policy in the rest of the European Union, especially since the world economic crisis and recession of 2008-2009. This paper raises questions as to whether the IMF's policy advice has contributed to the ongoing economic problems in Europe."

"In Good Jobs, Bad Jobs, Arne Kalleberg examines the institutional changes in the U.S. that led to a polarization of income and job quality, a rising share of poor quality jobs, and the increasing precariousness of work across the educational spectrum. He proposes reversing these developments through a new social contract that builds on the design principles that underlie flexicurity policies in the Netherlands and Denmark – flexicurity with an American face. This article discusses the roots and promise of flexicurity to address the problems Kalleberg has identified. It also examines the limits to flexicurity and proposes additional policies to fulfill this promise."

"As productivity grows in high-income, as well as developing countries, social choices will be made as to how much of the productivity gains will be taken in the form of higher consumption levels versus fewer work hours. In the last few decades, for example, western European countries have significantly reduced work hours (through shorter weekly hours and increased vacation time) while the United States has not.
This paper estimates the impact on climate change of reducing work hours over the rest of the century by an annual average of 0.5 percent. It finds that such a change in work hours would eliminate about one-quarter to one-half of the global warming that is not already locked in (i.e. warming that would be caused by 1990 levels of greenhouse gas concentrations already in the atmosphere)."

"Over the last two decades, high – and, in some countries, rising – rates of low-wage work have emerged as a major political concern. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), in 2009, about one-fourth of U.S. workers were in low-wage jobs, defined as earning less than two-thirds of the national median hourly wage (see first figure below). About one-fifth of workers in the United Kingdom, Canada, Ireland, and Germany were receiving low wages by the same definition. In all but a handful of the rich OECD countries, more than 10 percent of the workforce was in a low-wage job.

If low-wage jobs act as a stepping stone to higher-paying work, then even a relatively high share of low-wage work may not be a serious social problem. If, however, as appears to be the case in much of the wealthy world, low-wage work is a persistent and recurring state for many workers, then low-wages may contribute to broader income and wealth inequality and constitute a threat to social cohesion. This report draws five lessons on low-wage work from the recent experiences of the United States and other rich economies in the OECD."

"Researchers have offered several explanations for the decline in unionization. Many emphasize that “globalization” and the technological advances embodied in the “new economy” have made unions obsolete. However, if the decline in unionization is the inevitable response to the twin forces of globalization and technology, then we would expect unionization rates to follow a similar path in countries subjected to roughly similar levels of globalization and technology.

This paper looks at union membership and coverage for 21 rich economies, including the United States, and finds over the last five decades a wide range of trends in union membership and collective bargaining. The national political environment, not globalization or technology, is the most important factor driving long-run changes in unionization rates in the United States."