Documents Umkehrer, Matthias 8 results

"This study examines employment patterns on the labor market for German apprenticeship graduates and returns to early-career employment stability over the past four decades. The data indicate the decreasing stability of youth employment since the late 1980s. Exploiting variation in the timing of macroeconomic shocks, I identify true state dependencies and find that stable employment early in professional life exhibits significant wage returns in future periods. These returns are particularly pronounced at the bottom of the wage distribution and have substantially increased during the 1990s. Accordingly, securing the training-to- work transitions would primarily be beneficial for the wage growth of workers with a generally low earning potential."

"We analyze the relationship between early-career unemployment and prime-age earnings with German administrative linked employer-employee data. The careers of more than 720,000 male apprenticeship graduates from the cohorts of 1978 to 1980 are followed over 24 years. On average, early-career unemployment has substantial negative effects on earnings accumulated later in life. An identification strategy based on plant closure of the training firm at the time of graduation suggests that the revealed correlation is not the result of unobserved heterogeneity. Scarring effects also vary considerably across the earnings distribution. Workers with a high earnings potential are able to offset adverse consequences of early-career unemployment to a large extent. Workers who are located at the bottom of the prime-age earnings distribution, in contrast, suffer substantial and persistent losses. Our findings imply that a policy with the aim of preventing early-career unemployment would have long-lasting beneficial effects on future earnings."

"Does early-career unemployment cause future unemployment? We answer this question with German administrative matched employer-employee data that track more than 800,000 individuals over 24 years. Using a censored quantile instrumental variable estimator and instrumenting early-career unemployment with local labor market conditions at labor market entry and firm-specific labor demand shocks, we find significant and longlasting scarring effects. At the median, an additional day of unemployment during the first eight years on the labor market increases unemployment in the following 16 years by 0.96 days. Effects are even stronger in the right tail of the unemployment distribution. Likely due to unobserved heterogeneity in returns to search, they are also understated by non-IV estimates."

"Zum 1. Januar 1997 wurde im Bauhauptgewerbe ein Mindestlohn eingeführt, der bis heute besteht. Die Studie fasst verschiedene Ergebnisse zu den Folgen dieser Mindestlohnregelung zusammen. In Ostdeutschland war die Betroffenheit durch den Mindestlohn zum Zeitpunkt der Einführung stärker ausgeprägt als in Westdeutschland. Zudem wird seit dessen Einführung ein hoher Anteil der gewerblichen Arbeitnehmer im ostdeutschen Bauhauptgewerbe nahe dieser Untergrenze entlohnt. In Westdeutschland ist dies nicht der Fall. Für die Mindestlohneinführung zeigen sich positive Auswirkungen auf das Lohnwachstum in beiden Landesteilen. Nur sehr geringe oder keine Folgen lassen sich für die Beschäftigung inländischer Arbeitnehmer nachweisen. Auswirkungen auf ausländische Betriebe und deren Beschäftigte sowie Selbständige können kausalanalytisch nicht untersucht werden. Aufgrund der Besonderheiten des Bauhauptgewerbes ist bei der Übertragbarkeit der Ergebnisse auf andere Wirtschaftszweige bzw. Gesamtdeutschland allerdings Vorsicht geboten.""

"Does early‐career unemployment cause future unemployment? The authors approach this question using German administrative matched employer–employee data that track almost 700,000 individuals over 24 years. Instrumenting early‐career unemployment with firm‐specific labour demand shocks, they find significant and long‐lasting “scarring effects”. In the mean, each additional day of unemployment during the first eight years on the labour market increases unemployment in the following 16 years by half a day. However, quantile regressions show that the scarring effects are much stronger for individuals who already suffer from lengthy and repeated spells of unemployment. "

"The authors evaluate the exemption of long-term unemployed job seekers from Germany's national minimum wage. Using linked survey and administrative micro data, they rely on a regression discontinuity design to identify the effects of the policy by comparing hiring rates, employment stability, and entry wages around the administrative threshold between short-term and long-term unemployment. They find that the exemption is very rarely used and that the minimum wage binds irrespective of past unemployment duration. While the minimum wage led to a relative rise in entry wages for the long-term unemployed compared to the short-term unemployed, the authors do not detect a relative deterioration in their employment prospects."

"In this paper, we investigate the short-run effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on vocational education and training after the first lockdown in the year 2020 in Germany. We exploit rich establishment-level survey data to estimate the causal effects of the pandemic by applying difference-in-differences estimation, contrasting trends in outcomes between establishments more and less negatively affected by the pandemic. We find that, due to the pandemic, establishments not only trained less but also retained less of their recent graduates. Our findings foster concerns of the pandemic to increase future skills shortage in the labour market and dampen young peoples' career prospects."

"In this paper, we investigate the effects of the introduction of a nationwide minimum wage in Germany on main jobs, secondary jobs and their interaction by exploiting large-scale administrative data and variation in exposure to the minimum wage across jobs. While we find that the national minimum wage raised earnings but did not lower employment for both job types at an individual level, we document differential effects on working time adjustments: For main jobs, it increased the likelihood of upgrading marginal to regular jobs. For secondary jobs, it rather led to working hours reductions in order to maintain tax advantages. We also provide evidence that individuals holding more than one job (moonlighters) who experienced a minimum-wage-induced decline of working hours on their main job partially transferred hours to their secondary job instead. (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)"