Documents Bluth, Christian 5 results

"Globalisation needs to be accompanied by a strong welfare state. A new GED focus paper suggests that the complementarity between openness to trade and a strong welfare state weakened over time. While trade – the key driver of globalisation – improves net welfare, it comes with increased vulnerability to external shocks, decline of certain sectors of the economy, etc. In order to insure against these side-effects, a strong welfare state is needed. However, while globalisation is accelerating, the welfare state stagnates. This is the result of some prima facie evidence presented in the newest GED focus paper. Looking at historical evidence, it shows that the once positive correlation between the welfare state and openness to trade has gradually declined and is presently almost flat. This finding might have some explanatory potential to understand the present dissatisfaction with globalisation."

Although globalization is not a new phenomenon, making the best of it requires a deep understanding of its direct and indirect effects on the global and national economy, on policymaking, and most importantly on society. However, the economic analysis of globalization is not a simple task, not least because it is a controversial topic. Supporters of globalization see it as a source of economic growth and prosperity, while its opponents claim that global integration is eroding our natural environment and causing global inequality to increase. We believe that the debate surrounding global integration should go beyond the perception of whether globalization is good or bad. Most importantly, it should be based on empirical evidence. This evidence should promote transparency, break down the complexity behind the economic dynamics of globalization and allow evidence-based policymaking.

This is the pursuit of the project “Global Economic Dynamics” (GED) of the Bertelsmann Stiftung. Through our quantitative and qualitative work, we attempt to provide a deeper understanding of globalization, by learning its determinants, as well as its social and economic effects. Without neglecting the possible economic and social problems that may arise as markets become more integrated, our work tries to identify the channels through which Germany, Europe and the world can profit even stronger and wider from economic integration. Most importantly, it aims at fostering a future global integration that is fairer, economically sustainable and serves the interests of the whole population. Our “Roadmap 2030” presents an overview of our findings from the past five years of our project work. From our study, we have derived areas of action that will be crucial for Germany's and Europe's success in the next decade of globalization."

"Die durch die Corona-Pandemie ausgelöste globale Wirtschaftskrise ist bereits die zweite Wirtschaftskrise historischen Ausmaßes, wie sie seit den 1930er Jahren keine Generation mehr erlebt hat. Während die Finanzkrise von 2008/2009 das Ergebnis einer geplatzten Spekulationsblase war, die zu einem abrupten Nachfragerückgang nach Gütern und Dienstleistungen führte, ist eine Pandemie ein exogener Schock, der nicht nur einen Nachfrageeinbruch, sondern auch noch einen Produktionsrückgang hervorruft. Entsprechend gehen die aktuell vorliegenden Prognosen von einem wesentlich größeren Einbruch der Weltwirtschaft aus als nach der Lehman-Pleite, was die exportorientierte deutsche Volkswirtschaft hart trifft."