Documents Weyh, Antje 6 results

"Labor flows across industries reallocate resources and diffuse knowledge among economic activities. However, surprisingly little is known about the structure of such inter-industry flows. How freely do workers switch jobs among industries? Between which pairs of industries do we observe such switches? Do different types of workers have different transition matrices? Do these matrices change over time? Using German social security data, we generate stylized facts about inter-industry labor mobility and explore its consequences. We find that workers switch industries along tight paths that link industries in a sparse network. This labor-flow network is relatively stable over time, similar for workers in different occupations and wage categories and independent of whether workers move locally or over larger distances. When using these networks to construct inter-industry relatedness measures they prove better predictors of local industry growth rates than co-location or input-based alternatives. However, because industries that exchange much labor typically do not have correlated growth paths, the sparseness of the labor-flow network does not necessarily prevent a smooth reallocation of workers from shrinking to growing industries. To facilitate future research, the inter-industry relatedness matrices we develop are made available as an online appendix to this paper."

"In this paper we evaluate the forecasting performance of employment expectations for employment growth in 15 European states. Our data cover the period from the first quarter 1998 to the fourth quarter 2014. With in-sample analyses and pseudo out-ofsample exercises, we find that for most of the European states considered, the survey-based indicator model outperforms common benchmark models. It is therefore a powerful tool for generating more accurate employment forecasts. We observe the best results for one quarter ahead predictions that are primarily the aim of the survey question. However, employment expectations also work well for longer forecast horizons in some countries."

"We analyze the relation between population aging and the decline of unemployment in East Germany for the years from 1996 to 2012. To this we scrutinize both a direct and an indirect effect of aging on unemployment. The direct effect includes a decomposition of the East German unemployment rate into three components considering changes in the workforce's age structure, labor market participation, and age-specific unemployment rates. Results show that changes in the age structure of the workforce counteracted unemployment decline since 2005. Spatial panel regressions on the small-scale regional level, however, point towards an indirect effect of aging on unemployment that works through the increasing competition for labor. Overall results show that the declining unemployment rate in East Germany is indeed affected by aging as evidenced by a declining youth share and an increasing old-age share. This indicates that a reversed cohort crowding effect has taken place."

"This paper provides first-time evidence on the magnitude and determinants of regional differences in the gender pay gap (GPG) in Germany. Using a comprehensive data set of all full-time employees, we conduct Oaxaca-Blinder decompositions for Germany and its regions to explain the regional variation of the GPG with theory-based individual, job-related and regional characteristics. Our results provide several novel insights into the regional dimension of the GPG. First, men's wages are more strongly correlated with the regional GPG than those of women, indicating that their wages drive the regional variation in the GPG much more than the wages of women. Second, the decomposition results reveal pronounced differences in the impact of the individual and job-related characteristics between the regions. Whereas job-related characteristics are important in regions with a high GPG, individual characteristics rather come into play in regions with a low or negative GPG. The results underscore the role played by the establishment composition in a region and the kind of jobs provided for the regional GPG. Women earn more than men in regions with a weak local economic structure and the absence of large firms providing well-paid manufacturing jobs. In regions with a high GPG, in contrast, men usually benefit from such jobs. The third result relates to the validity of the theoretical determinants of the GPG in regional respect. In contrast to the clear-cut decomposition results at the national level, at the regional level their validity mainly applies to specific subsets of regions. We conclude that analyses at the national level come too short in precisely explaining the regional variation of the GPG."

"Der Kurzbericht stellt die Ergebnisse der regionalen IAB-Arbeitsmarktprognosen 2020/2021 für die sozialversicherungspflichtige Beschäftigung und die Arbeitslosigkeit auf Ebene der Bundesländer vor. In einigen Bundesländern wird für das Jahr 2020 trotz der Covid-19-Pandemie ein Anstieg der Beschäftigung erwartet. Für 2021 geht das Autorenteam davon aus, dass es in allen Bundesländern zu einem Beschäftigungsaufbau kommt. Im Vergleich zur Entwicklung vor der Covid-19-Pandemie fällt das prognostizierte Beschäftigungswachstum allerdings niedriger aus. Gleichzeitig sinkt im nächsten Jahr die Zahl der Arbeitslosen nahezu flächendeckend. Dieser Rückgang findet mit Ausnahme einiger westdeutscher Bundesländer überwiegend im Rechtskreis SGB III statt. In den meisten ostdeutschen Flächenländern werden höhere Rückgänge der Arbeitslosigkeit prognostiziert als vor der Corona-Krise."

"Dass Frauen in Deutschland weniger verdienen als Männer, gilt gemeinhin als bekannt. Die nationale Betrachtung verdeckt jedoch große Unterschiede zwischen den einzelnen Regionen. Im Folgenden zeigen wir diese regionalen Unterschiede mit dem so genannten Gender Pay Gap (GPG) auf. Datengrundlage bildet hierbei der nominale Lohn (brutto), den sozialversicherungspflichtig Vollzeitbeschäftigte zum Stichtag 30.06.2021 in einer bestimmten Region verdient haben."