Documents economic forecast 309 results

"Dans ce travail, l'estimation précoce de la croissanceprovient d'un modèle à facteurs, extraits d'un nombre réduit deséries mensuelles, ces dernières ayant été choisies parl'algorithme de la régression LARS (Least Angle Regression). Onsuit en cela le travail de Bai et Ng (2008) qui tranche avec letraditionnel modèle à facteurs, basé sur un très grand nombre deséries mensuelles. Les auteurs préconisent de ne retenir que lesséries les plus performantes pour prévoir la croissance« the targeted predictors ». Une pseudo analyse en temps réelest mise en oeuvre sur la période 2001-2007 pour estimer lacroissance française du trimestre en cours et du trimestresuivant."

"Uncertain Futures considers how economic actors visualize the future and decide how to act in conditions of radical uncertainty. It starts from the premise that dynamic capitalist economies are characterized by relentless innovation and novelty and hence exhibit an indeterminacy that cannot be reduced to measurable risk. The organizing question then becomes how economic actors form expectations and make decisions despite the uncertainty they face. This edited volume lays the foundations for a new model of economic reasoning by showing how, in conditions of uncertainty, economic actors combine calculation with imaginaries and narratives to form fictional expectations that coordinate action and provide the confidence to act. It draws on groundbreaking research in economic sociology, economics, anthropology, and psychology to present theoretically grounded empirical case studies. These demonstrate how grand narratives, central bank forward guidance, economic forecasts, finance models, business plans, visions of technological futures, and new era stories influence behaviour and become instruments of power in markets and societies. The market impact of shared calculative devices, social narratives, and contingent imaginaries underlines the rationale for a new form of narrative economics."

"The sudden and deep recession triggered by the outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) has warranted adjusting the standard tools used for forecasting euro area real GDP growth in real time. The severe economic consequences of COVID-19 have played havoc with established statistical and economic relationships.[1] Hence, standard short-term forecasting models have been able to capture neither the extent of the contraction observed in the first two quarters of 2020 – with quarter-on-quarter declines of 3.7% and 11.7% in the first and the second quarters, respectively – nor the rebound in the third quarter – with an increase of 12.5%. These exceptional dynamics have required an update of the set of tools typically used to forecast euro area real GDP growth in real time. This box describes four approaches developed by ECB staff to account for the specific characteristics and implications of the COVID-19 pandemic..."